How Does COVID-19 Impact Clean Energy and our Climate Future?

The effects of COVID-19, or Novel Corona Virus ('nCoV') feel all too real to us at this moment. Most can likely say they have already experienced consequences of the nCoV pandemic either in health, emotional wellness, financial impact or by the global response. Trust that this shock will over time subside, and the crisis will become one of those stories of days past, that we tell a younger generation over a comforting cup of tea. However, when we visualize ourselves in the future telling that story, we should wonder what that future looks like. To me, the following question comes to mind.

How does nCoV today, stand to impact our future energy and climate objectives?

Despite expectations, 2019 global energy-related C02 emissions reflected unchanged year over year results, i.e. no increase in emissions, even with an approximate 3 percent growth in the global economy. This positive result was driven by increased usage of low carbon natural gas, renewables and nuclear for electricity generation, and some lucky 2019 weather conditions (IEA, 11.02.2020).

The global energy sector, industry, and our every day economic activity incurred a significant crunch in Q1 2020, and continues to be impacted as we enter Q2 2020. Airlines and transportation, which are major consumers of hydrocarbon fuels, are at a standstill. Production of goods and services are stalled. It can reasonably be expected that 2020 will be a year of significant emissions reduction, due to the economic impacts of nCoV. There are news articles already emerging of cleaner air and water bodies across the globe - a positive result that we can find some needed comfort in at this time; however, it also raises another question.

Near-term global emissions will decline, but is it derived from the right reasons?

It will be incorrect to claim that society took the initiative and correct actions to reduce near-term emissions this year; rather the reduction will be the direct result of an economic meltdown. There is however, a unique opportunity to direct our future at this time. With a crisis at hand and slow economic growth predicted over the next couple years, leaders of states are focusing on the following:

1. Medical response, security and essential services - ensuring the immediate safety and well being of people.

2. Backstopping, or creating economic 'firewalls' - to protect key economic sectors of national importance, and prevent further value erosion.

3. Targeted financial stimulus packages - to provide economic growth and jobs in existing and emerging sectors.

Focusing strictly on climate, strategic stimulus packages will be essential to ensure society stays the course of its climate objectives. Leaders are in a sensitive position where they are challenged with recovering the impacts of the economy through significant financial investment, while balancing the need for continued focus and investment on longer term objectives. This leads to a third and final question.

At the expense of near-term economic recovery, will our leaders and society jeopardize our climate and energy future?

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." (Lao Tzu).

Thus, do we throw the major share of stimulus investment into sectors we know will pay out now, or do we invest in the sectors that will pay out in our future. For example, with the consolidation in the oil sector, jobs and sector recovery will certainly be created through government stimulus, such as financing infrastructure that provides access for oil to other markets. But let's not forget about also creating jobs in future technologies, such as modernization of housing and energy efficient structures, the growth of 'utility scale' renewable energy such as wind, solar, biomass and marine energy, and investment in clean-tech such as the electrification of society, batteries for storage, and hydrogen energy.

Nobody likes hearing their job is at risk today, but for the visionaries and adaptable, new opportunities can become available through economic shocks, such as we are currently experiencing. It is up to our leaders to stay the course on climate and environmental objectives, especially those who participated in the COP 21 Paris Agreement. They must take care of our health and basic needs at this time, while initiating strategies towards securing economic recovery - including 'Green Stimulus,' into sectors such as renewables and clean tech.